The Japanese long-term care insurance will be confronted with not only a danger in finance, but also a deficiency in labor supply of nursing care in the near future. In particular, the government has not taken any effective measure for the latter problem yet. Hence, this paper conducts a long-run projection of labor demand and supply for long-term care in order to estimate its future gap. When predicting the gap on nurses, home attendants and nursing-care worker in this paper, we consider a possible change in the demand for nursing-care services caused by the future increase in the contributions to the long-term care insurance. Moreover, we take into account the effects of recent policies for minimizing care needs and the reform of health facilities for recuperation. Our projection indicates that the supply of home attendants and nursing-care workers will be able to satisfy the future increasing demand for their services if more certified persons are engaged in those jobs. On the other hand, the supply of nurses may run short in the near future even if all certified persons work.
Long-term care insurance, Labor demand and supply, Long-range projection