Assessment of Energy Strategy for Asia based upon Multinational Equilibrium Model of Crude Oil Market and Scenario Analyses

Research Project , Research Report 2006

Masanari KOIKE Dep. of Technology Management for Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The Univ. of Tokyo
Gento MOGI Dep. of Technology Management for Innovation Graduate School of Engineering, The Univ. of Tokyo
Hideyuki HORII Dep. of Civil Engineering, The Univ. of Tokyo
Ryota OMORI Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society, Japan Science and Technology Agency

Abstract

In this research, an international crude oil market is modeled as a multinational equilibrium model and the mechanism of changes in market price is analyzed. Since the crude oil price in an international market is decided in the spot market, responses of the oil-producing countries to the future demand increase were analyzed as plural case studies in the spot market. The oil-producing countries in this research consist of OPEC and non-OPEC countries then the change in market price by each policy was calculated. For the case studies, a scenario analysis of considering a future energy trend of East Asian region and the strategy was applied. It is the result of energetic debate done by energy or policy specialists, in which they evaluated possibilities of each scenario and its impact. Through these processes, the research shows quantitatively several results dependent on the trend of production and investment in the oil-producing countries and the change in future demand especially in East Asia.

Keywords:

Crude oil market, equilibrium model, scenario planning, energy security, East Asia, China