For realization of a sustainable global society, new technologies that are currently still unproved must penetrate successfully into the social infrastructure. Generally, when new technologies are introduced to a particular region, they complete and displace existing technologies, resulting in large-scale changes to production facilities, infrastructure, material transportation, societal standards, and other aspects of the region’s industrial ecology. Rapid and “non-regret” introduction of new technologies requires consideration of the life cycle impacts of the system that is to use the new technology and the process for manufacturing the system from the research and development stage, in addition to consideration of the particular region characteristics. Furthermore, “trouble” or “failure” mechanisms that might occur at the manufacturing, operation, implementation, and dismantling stages must be considered. Development of a design support system for assessing design alternatives and failure prevention measures during the process of developing the new technology could help answer these issues. Using the budding energy technology “Solid Oxide Fuel Cell” as a concrete example of a new technology, we have studied the feasibility and potential effectiveness of a model-based technology design platform to support design of systems that could successfully penetrate into existing industrial ecologies.
Technology introduction, Scenario analysis, Solid Oxide Fuel Cell, Model Integration, Computational Modeling