META-GAME-BASED SCENARIO ANALYSIS : CASE STUDY OF REGIONAL TRANSPORT PLAN IN THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA

Research Project , Research Report 2006

Hironori KATO
Hideaki SHIROYAMA
Yoshinori NAKAGAWA

Abstract

This paper proposes a method to generate future scenarios with an analysis on the reciprocal expectation of stakeholders and applies it to a case of regional transport planning. Our method covers both macroscopic uncertainty and microscopic uncertainty. The macroscopic uncertainty originates from five factors: natural, political, economics, social and technological, whereas the microscopic uncertainty originates from interrelations among stakeholders. We demonstrate an empirical application of the proposed method to a case of regional transport planning of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) in the context that the TMA interacts closely the East Asia Region.

Keywords:

scenario analysis, problem structuring, regional transport policy, case study, microscopic uncertainties, Kanto region, transdisciplinary approach