This paper proposes a method to generate future scenarios with an analysis on the reciprocal expectation of stakeholders and applies it to a case of regional transport planning. Our method covers both macroscopic uncertainty and microscopic uncertainty. The macroscopic uncertainty originates from five factors: natural, political, economics, social and technological, whereas the microscopic uncertainty originates from interrelations among stakeholders. We demonstrate an empirical application of the proposed method to a case of regional transport planning of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) in the context that the TMA interacts closely the East Asia Region.
scenario analysis, problem structuring, regional transport policy, case study, microscopic uncertainties, Kanto region, transdisciplinary approach